This magnificent book is the first comprehensive history of statistics from its beginnings around 1700 to its emergence as a distinct and mature discipline around 1900. < p> Stephen M. Stigler shows how statistics arose from the interplay of mathematical concepts and the needs of several applied sciences including astronomy, geodesy, experimental psychology, genetics, and sociology. He addresses many intriguing questions: How did scientists learn to combine measurements made under different conditions? And how were they led to use probability theory to measure the accuracy of the result? Why were statistical methods used successfully in astronomy long before they began to play a significant role in the social sciences? How could the introduction of least squares predate the discovery of regression by more than eighty years? On what grounds can the major works of men such as Bernoulli, De Moivre, Bayes, Quetelet, and Lexis be considered partial failures, while those of Laplace, Galton, Edgeworth, Pearson, and Yule are counted as successes? How did Galton's probability machine (the quincunx) provide him with the key to the major advance of the last half of the nineteenth century? < /p> < p> Stigler's emphasis is upon how, when, and where the methods of probability theory were developed for measuring uncertainty in experimental and observational science, for reducing uncertainty, and as a conceptual framework for quantative studies in the social sciences. He describes with care the scientific context in which the different methods evolved and identifies the problems (conceptual or mathematical) that retarded the growth of mathematical statistics and the conceptualdevelopments that permitted major breakthroughs. < /p> < p> Statisticians, historians of science, and social and behavioral scientists will gain from this book a deeper understanding of the use of statistical methods and a better grasp of the promise and limitations of such techniques. The product of ten years of research, < i> The History of Statistics< /i> will appeal to all who are interested in the humanistic study of science. < /p>
Show moreThis magnificent book is the first comprehensive history of statistics from its beginnings around 1700 to its emergence as a distinct and mature discipline around 1900. < p> Stephen M. Stigler shows how statistics arose from the interplay of mathematical concepts and the needs of several applied sciences including astronomy, geodesy, experimental psychology, genetics, and sociology. He addresses many intriguing questions: How did scientists learn to combine measurements made under different conditions? And how were they led to use probability theory to measure the accuracy of the result? Why were statistical methods used successfully in astronomy long before they began to play a significant role in the social sciences? How could the introduction of least squares predate the discovery of regression by more than eighty years? On what grounds can the major works of men such as Bernoulli, De Moivre, Bayes, Quetelet, and Lexis be considered partial failures, while those of Laplace, Galton, Edgeworth, Pearson, and Yule are counted as successes? How did Galton's probability machine (the quincunx) provide him with the key to the major advance of the last half of the nineteenth century? < /p> < p> Stigler's emphasis is upon how, when, and where the methods of probability theory were developed for measuring uncertainty in experimental and observational science, for reducing uncertainty, and as a conceptual framework for quantative studies in the social sciences. He describes with care the scientific context in which the different methods evolved and identifies the problems (conceptual or mathematical) that retarded the growth of mathematical statistics and the conceptualdevelopments that permitted major breakthroughs. < /p> < p> Statisticians, historians of science, and social and behavioral scientists will gain from this book a deeper understanding of the use of statistical methods and a better grasp of the promise and limitations of such techniques. The product of ten years of research, < i> The History of Statistics< /i> will appeal to all who are interested in the humanistic study of science. < /p>
Show moreIntroduction PART 1: The Development of Mathematical Statistics in Astronomy and Geodesy before 1827 1. Least Squares and the Combination of Observations Legendre in 1805 Cotes's Rule Tobias Mayer and the Libration of the Moon Saturn, Jupiter, and Enter Laplace's Rescue of the Solar System Roger Boscovich and the Figure of the Earth Laplace and the Method of Situation Legendre and the Invention of Least Squares 2. Probabilists and the Measurement of Uncertainty Jacob Bernoulli De Moivre and the Expanded Binomial Bernoulli's Failure De Moivre's Approximation De Moivre's Deficiency Simpson and Bayes Simpson's Crucial Step toward Error A Bayesian Critique 3. Inverse Probability Laplace and Inverse Probability The Choice of Means The Deduction of a Curve of Errors in 1772-1774
Stigler's book exhibits a rare combination of mastery of technical materials, sensitivity to conceptual milieu, and near exhaustive familiarity with primary sources. An exemplary study -- Lorraine Daston
Stephen M. Stigler is Ernest DeWitt Burton Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus in the Department of Statistics at the University of Chicago.
One is tempted to say that the history of statistics in the
nineteenth century will be associated with the name Stigler.
*New York Times Book Review*
An exceptionally searching, almost loving, study of the relevant
inspirations and aberrations of its principal characters James
Bernoulli, de Moivre, Bayes, Laplace, Gauss, Quetelet, Lexis,
Galton, Edgeworth, and Pearson, not neglecting a grand supporting
cast… The definitive record of an intellectual Golden Age, an
overoptimistic climb to a height not to be maintained.
*Science*
In this tour de force of careful scholarship, Stephen Stigler has
laid bare the people, ideas, and events underlying the development
of statistics… He has written an important and wonderful book…
Sometimes Stigler’s prose is so evocative it is almost poetic.
*Contemporary Psychology*
The book is a pleasure to read: the prose sparkles; the
protagonists are vividly drawn; the illustrations are handsome and
illuminating; the insights plentiful and sharp. This will remain
the definitive work on the early development of mathematical
statistics for some time to come.
*Journal of Modern History*
Stigler’s book exhibits a rare combination of mastery of technical
materials, sensitivity to conceptual milieu, and near exhaustive
familiarity with primary sources. An exemplary study.
*Lorraine Daston*
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