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The 2020 United States presidential race is arguably already over except for about 12 states and 20 counties. If recent presidential election trends are any indication of what will happen in 2020, Democrats in Texas and Republicans in New York might as well stay home on election day because their votes will matter little in the presidential race. The same might be said for voters in most states and counties in the United States. Conversely, for those in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and a handful of other states, every vote matters. These states will be battered with a barrage of presidential candidate visits, commercials, political spending, and countless stories in the media. This book analyzes why the presidential race has been effectively reduced to about a dozen states and 20 counties. Contributors to this volume make substantial updates and additions in light of the 2016 and in anticipation of the 2020 presidential elections, including 6 new chapters exploring why some states are swingers in presidential elections, capable of being won by either of the major candidates. The volume also adds a chapter examining important swing counties throughout the country. Presidential Swing States describes what makes these few states and counties unique and why the presidency is decided by who wins them. With cases studies written by prominent political scientists who are experts on these swing states, Presidential Swing States also explains why some states have been swingers but no longer are, why some are swinging, and which states may become the ones that decide the presidency.
Show moreThe 2020 United States presidential race is arguably already over except for about 12 states and 20 counties. If recent presidential election trends are any indication of what will happen in 2020, Democrats in Texas and Republicans in New York might as well stay home on election day because their votes will matter little in the presidential race. The same might be said for voters in most states and counties in the United States. Conversely, for those in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and a handful of other states, every vote matters. These states will be battered with a barrage of presidential candidate visits, commercials, political spending, and countless stories in the media. This book analyzes why the presidential race has been effectively reduced to about a dozen states and 20 counties. Contributors to this volume make substantial updates and additions in light of the 2016 and in anticipation of the 2020 presidential elections, including 6 new chapters exploring why some states are swingers in presidential elections, capable of being won by either of the major candidates. The volume also adds a chapter examining important swing counties throughout the country. Presidential Swing States describes what makes these few states and counties unique and why the presidency is decided by who wins them. With cases studies written by prominent political scientists who are experts on these swing states, Presidential Swing States also explains why some states have been swingers but no longer are, why some are swinging, and which states may become the ones that decide the presidency.
Show moreChapter 1: Purple Battlegrounds: Presidential Campaign Strategies
and Swing State Voters
Scott L. McLean
Part I: The “Classic” Swing States
Chapter 2: Florida: Still the Largest Swing State
Sean D. Foreman
Chapter 3: Iowa: Still Swinging After All These Years
Donna R. Hoffman and Christopher W. Larimer
Chapter 4: New Hampshire as a Swing State
Dante J. Scala
Chapter 5: Nevada: A Swing State No More? Demographic and Political
Change in the Silver State
David F. Damore and Rebecca D. Gill
Chapter 6: Ohio
Sean Trende
Part II: The “Recent” Swing States
Chapter 7: Still Contesting Colorado? The Politics of the 2016
Election in Colorado
Robert R. Preuhs, Norman Provizer, and Andrew Thangasamy
Chapter 8: North Carolina: Still Swingin’ in the South
Christopher A. Cooper and H. Gibbs Knotts
Chapter 9: Virginia: Demography Drives the Old Dominion’s
Destiny
John J. McGlennon
Part III: The “New-Found” Swing States
Chapter 10: Michigan: Hiding Behind a Thin Blue Wall
David A. Dulio and John S. Klemanski
Chapter 11: Keys to the Keystone State: Pennsylvania’s Return as a
Premier Swing State
Rafael Jacob and Christopher Borick
Chapter 12: A Blue State Turns Red: The Future of Wisconsin
Politics in the Aftermath of the Surprising 2016 Election
Neil Kraus and Aaron C. Weinschenk
Part IV: The “Emerging” Swing States?
Chapter 13: Arizona: Right of Center with Potential to Change
Kate Kenski
Chapter 14: The “Two Maines” in a (Potentially) New Swing State
Amy Fried and James P. Melcher
Chapter 15: The Loyal Blue State of Minnesota: Turning Purple
David A. Schultz
Chapter 16: Swing Counties in Presidential Elections
David A. Schultz
David A. Schultz is professor of political science at Hamline
University.
Rafael Jacob is post-doctoral fellow at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair's
Center for U.S. Studies and instructor at the University of
Ottawa's School of Political Studies.
Anyone hoping to do analysis leading up to or explaining the
outcome of the 2020 presidential election would be well served to
read Schultz and Jacob’s Presidential Swing States. Though dealing
with more states than the first edition, this second edition does
not overemphasize the earlier work's strict (and somewhat
confusing) definitions. As such, it seems clearer and serves as a
road map or, better yet, a travel guide to the states that may play
a determining role in the outcome of the next election. Gone from
this edition is any confusion about the number of states being
discussed, but added is a separate chapter that explores a number
of specific, key counties that may be even more determinative of
the 2020 outcome in an especially close contest. . . this edition
of Presidential Swing States will be of great value for the amateur
political analyst as well as the seasoned professional.
Summing Up: Recommended. Graduate students, faculty, and
professionals.
*CHOICE*
Presidential Swing States is a welcome addition to the scholarship
on parties and elections. The highly accomplished authors of this
volume will enable students, scholars and journalists to better
comprehend the state of play in the ten competitive states that
dominate contemporary presidential politics. Combining insightful
analysis and thorough research, they shed light on the raw and
disruptive partisanship that has divided the country and tested the
national resolve.
*Sidney M. Milkis, University of Virginia*
It's early, but the most indispensable guide to the next
presidential election has arrived. Both the treasure trove of data
and the analyses of state-by-state voting patterns make this the
book to keep close by as the 20202 campaign begins; it might even
help prevent the widespread misreading of the last one.
*Jeff Greenfield, Author/ journalist*
Presidential Swing States is a spot-on insider’s guide to the
outcome of what is sure to be a tumultuous 2020 presidential
campaign. A few states – the swing states – will
determine the winner. These states may not be the most
populous, but they are the most important, and this book explains
why and what to look for in each of them as the 2020 election
nears.
*Tom W. Rice, The University of Iowa*
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