Direct coal liquefaction, a synthetic liquid fuel process, is one of the major developmental alternatives for meeting the anticipated fuel demands for the twenty-first century. This work provides a retrospective assessment of past attempts in this century to develop synthetic liquid fuel and applies the findings to produce reliable and pertinent data for the future. Retrospective technology assessment, a recent methodological invention, is used by the authors to analyze the past synthetic liquid fuel programs and the reasons for their failures. Bringing to bear four different perspectives--economic, technological, policy, and historical--the authors draw broad conclusions that will help guide the next development effort in the United States.
Direct coal liquefaction, a synthetic liquid fuel process, is one of the major developmental alternatives for meeting the anticipated fuel demands for the twenty-first century. This work provides a retrospective assessment of past attempts in this century to develop synthetic liquid fuel and applies the findings to produce reliable and pertinent data for the future. Retrospective technology assessment, a recent methodological invention, is used by the authors to analyze the past synthetic liquid fuel programs and the reasons for their failures. Bringing to bear four different perspectives--economic, technological, policy, and historical--the authors draw broad conclusions that will help guide the next development effort in the United States.
The Context of Direct Coal Liquefaction Development in the
Synthetic Fuels Technology Arena
Retrospective Technology Assessment: Methods and Approach
Analytical Framework for Retrospective Technology Assessment of
Direct Coal Liquefaction
Pre-1939 Development of Direct Coal Liquefaction
History of Direct Coal Liquefaction Development in the United
States
H-Coal: The Baseline Case
An Economics-Driven Perspective on Direct Coal Liquefaction
A Public Policy-Driven Perspective on Direct Coal Liquefaction
Conclusions--The Effects of Support Hiatus on Direct Coal
Liquefaction Development
MICHAEL CROW is Director of Science Policy and Research, Iowa
State University.
BARRY BOZEMAN is Director of the Technology and Information Policy
Program, Syracuse University.
WALTER MEYER is Director of the Institute for Energy Research,
Syracuse University.
RALPH SHANGRAW, JR., is Senior Research Fellow, Technology and
Information Policy Program, Syracuse University
?It has been generally recognized that the demand for liquid fuels
(petroleum) will sooner or later outstrip the recoverable earthly
resources. It is also well known that liquid fuels can be obtained
from coal and that coal resources are more abundant than petroleum
reserves. Hence it is obvious to try to obtain commercial
quantities of liquid fuel from coal. Although billions of dollars
have been spent in the US and elsewhere on this effort, success is
lacking. Why? If we were about to embark upon such a development
endeavor, we might attempt some formal prospective technology
assessment' research to ascertain the prospects of success. If we
wish to learn from apparent failures, such as that of coal
liquefaction, we should try a retrospective technology assessment'
(RTA). Such is the goal of this book. It summarizes the
requirements and method of prospective and retrospective technology
assessment and applies the latter to the US effort to directly
liquify coal, examining economic, policy, and
scientific-technological models. In the process, a great deal of
technical, economic, and policy history is presented. An attempt is
then made to draw conclusions that will have implications for
public policy, particularly in the area of large-scale public
technology.' The book ends with long appendixes detailing the
questions directed to experts in the field, which were the data for
the RTA, and with ample notes.?-Choice
"It has been generally recognized that the demand for liquid fuels
(petroleum) will sooner or later outstrip the recoverable earthly
resources. It is also well known that liquid fuels can be obtained
from coal and that coal resources are more abundant than petroleum
reserves. Hence it is obvious to try to obtain commercial
quantities of liquid fuel from coal. Although billions of dollars
have been spent in the US and elsewhere on this effort, success is
lacking. Why? If we were about to embark upon such a development
endeavor, we might attempt some formal prospective technology
assessment' research to ascertain the prospects of success. If we
wish to learn from apparent failures, such as that of coal
liquefaction, we should try a retrospective technology assessment'
(RTA). Such is the goal of this book. It summarizes the
requirements and method of prospective and retrospective technology
assessment and applies the latter to the US effort to directly
liquify coal, examining economic, policy, and
scientific-technological models. In the process, a great deal of
technical, economic, and policy history is presented. An attempt is
then made to draw conclusions that will have implications for
public policy, particularly in the area of large-scale public
technology.' The book ends with long appendixes detailing the
questions directed to experts in the field, which were the data for
the RTA, and with ample notes."-Choice
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